Indonesia is weighing the pros and cons of a new strategic partnership with the United States ahead of President Barack Obama's visit scheduled for March 20. The two sides are expected to sign a comprehensive agreement that some analysts believe could signal a strategic shift in US policy towards the region. More cooperation on issues such as security, education, infrastructure development and climate change are all in the cards as Washington bids to shore up ties with a country that has seen extraordinary democratic gains since President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono first took office in 2004.
Indonesia is a symbolically attractive partner in Washington in light of the significant backsliding in democracy and human rights seen in recent years with its traditional strategic regional allies, Thailand and the Philippines. Efforts by the United States to draw closer to Indonesia also reflect the perceived need in Washington for a stable partner in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), to which the Obama administration has promised to dedicate more diplomatic energy than its predecessor George W Bush administration.
Efforts to improve relations with the world's fourth-most populous nation also work towards the Obama administration' s aim to counter China's rising influence in the region. The biggest strategic interest the US shares with Indonesia concerns freedom of passage through its waterways, particularly the Malacca Strait, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. "The US needs to ensure that our waterways don't fall into China's hands and that they can still have free control over areas such as the South China Sea and the Banda Strait, because, like it or not, US operations in the Middle East still depend on control of these waterways," said Evan Laksmana, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.
As much as 80% of China's total crude imports pass through the Malacca Strait, a highly congested channel prone to pirate attacks. The three bordering states - Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore - have tussled over who should lead security in the strait, and the US and China have simultaneously competed for influence over the waterway through grants of military assistance. Just this month, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia stepped up sea patrols in the Strait of Malacca after Singapore's navy said last week it had received indications a terrorist group was planning attacks on oil tankers. In recent years, US maritime strategy has shifted toward disaster management, border patrol and natural resource control, Laksmana said, noting that the first issue is one where the US could significantly improve relations with Indonesia given its lack of contention.
The US was instrumental in providing relief supplies in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami that devastated Indonesia's Aceh province. Yet enhancing US-Indonesian ties will require overcoming certain sticking points.
Soon after terrorists struck the resort island of Bali in 2002, the US declared Southeast Asia as a second front in the "war on terror" and raised concern by its effort to deploy counterterrorism forces in the region. The proposal raised strong opposition in both Malaysia and Indonesia, two Muslim nations that saw an increase in anti-US sentiment in the wake of the September 11, 2001, terror attacks in the US. Over the years, Jakarta overcame early perceptions in Washington that it was soft on terrorism by disrupting al-Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) terror cells and through the arrest and assassination of militants, including last September's killing of JI bomb-maker Noordin M Top. As Jakarta has burnished its counter-terrorism credentials, Washington has gradually strengthened ties with segments of Indonesia's military and law enforcement agencies. In 2005, the US lifted several sanctions against military cooperation that were imposed in response to past human-rights abuses perpetrated by Indonesian forces. Washington still refuses to provide funds and training to Indonesia's special forces, known as Kopassus, because of abuses committed by its units in Papua and East Timor.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee meeting last week that the administration hoped to expand its military partnership with Indonesia, hinting at a possible reassessment of the ban. "Kopassus training is the last frontier for re-engagement and a US seal of approval for the Indonesian military," John Miller, national coordinator for the East Timor and Indonesia Action Network, said by e-mail. "The Obama administration has decided that Indonesia is its entry to the Islamic world and is looking for ways to keep Indonesia happy." Forging stronger ties will require both sides to put aside past hang-ups, said Dino Patti Djalal, Yudhoyono's special advisor on international affairs. Both governments have been frustrated by negotiations that have raised old issues, including Kopassus' rights abuses.
"America's image in Indonesia has taken a beating in the last 10 years," said Dino, referring to the perceived role US investors played in bringing on the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis that effectively bankrupted Indonesia, as well as Washington's punitive ban on weapons' sales to the government. "We tend to be weighed down by old issues." There is also widespread mistrust over the US's agenda in promoting democracy, economic development and public health, a legacy in part of the US Central Intelligence Agency's covert activities in the country to counter communism dating back to the 1960s. In 2008, then health minister Siti Fadillah Supari shut down the US Naval Medical Research Unit, known as NAMRU-2, for conducting alleged non-scientific activities, including espionage.
The US defended NAMRU as a biomedical research laboratory that studied infectious diseases of mutual interest to both countries. NAMRU is one of many unresolved bilateral issues and to a certain extent is seen as a test of the willingness of both sides to take the relationship to the next level, say international relations experts. Love-hate relations Since the 1998 fall of former dictator Suharto, Indonesia has attempted sporadically to build stronger ties with Washington - to date with limited success. However, advisor Dino believes the US has developed a "soft spot" towards Indonesia under Obama, who spent part of his childhood in the country. Indonesia's own insecurities have mitigated against stronger US cooperation. With the world's economic and political power shifting to East from West, the US has so far concentrated more on relations with China and India, raising resentment among some Indonesians who feel their country, the world's largest Muslim and fourth-most populous nation, has been neglected. "We tend to see our relationships abroad as predators. We do this with Singapore, Malaysia, and we tend to do this with the United States," said Dino, highlighting how strong feelings of nationalism sometimes complicate Indonesia's diplomacy.
In the past, those xenophobic impulses have fed into protectionist policies, extending into natural resources and industry. Recently, the government has contemplated easing up on those barriers as it struggles to attract fresh investment for much-needed infrastructure development. The Investment Coordinating Board is now streamlining the country's negative investment list to allow foreign investors to take stakes in previously closed business sectors such as education, health care and telecommunications. Business leaders here say US companies need to see Indonesian companies as open and accessible if they are to compete with China, India or even regional competitor Vietnam. "The United States is important for us because it sets the tone for all the other investors and markets," Gita Wirjawan, chairman of the Investment Coordinating Board, told Reuters during a recent visit to Washington.
While Indonesia still sees the US as its biggest potential market, the global financial collapse that emanated from Wall Street has limited the US's outward investments, causing Indonesia to look increasingly towards its neighbors in East Asia for fresh funds. China hopes to tap more deeply the country's rich natural resources to meet its ever-growing energy needs. Investment in non-oil and gas industries is also expected to increase through an ASEAN-China free trade agreement that took effect on January 1 and will reduce tariffs across 17 business sectors, including steel and textiles. Religious figures in Indonesia hope that Obama will take the opportunity to give another of his historic speeches on religious tolerance during his visit, similar to one he gave in Cairo last June. When Obama first took office, many in Indonesia believed he would work to counter widespread perceptions that the US was at war with Islam. Indonesia is well-known for its relatively moderate brand of the religion, and its now proven ability to blend the faith with democracy would provide a symbolic backdrop for another landmark speech on the need for global tolerance and understanding, analysts suggest. Participants at a March 2 conference arranged in Jakarta to discuss the details of a new US-Indonesia comprehensive partnership highlighted the two countries' shared experience with democracy and suggested it provided potential building blocks for deeper diplomatic engagement.
"Indonesia has the advantage of being free from the baggage we Americans have when we try to spread democracy," said Gerald Hyman, from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Help us out. Let that be a partnership between the US and Indonesian people." Yet any unilateral move by Yudhoyono to bolster US-Indonesia ties could face opposition from an increasingly divided parliament, which recently recommended a criminal investigation into a 2008 government bailout of a small bank that in recent months has made big political waves. (See End in sight for Bank Century circus, Mar 10, '10) The financial scandal has distracted Yudhoyono from addressing more pressing issues at the same time that Obama has been mired in healthcare debates.
Those parallel plights have prompted some analysts here to wonder if either government leader is willing to expend the political capital needed to resolve complicated bilateral issues, such as restoring US military ties with Kopassus. With the popularity of both presidents in decline - highlighted most recently by opposition in Jakarta to the erection of a controversial statue of a 10-year-old Obama in a park in central Jakarta - there is a risk a deal with the US may yet be sacrificed at the alter of local politics.
Comments