More than likely, fear pervades the palace these days. Fear that the president's political opponents are planning a serious attack. Fear that the media are intent on malicious rumor-mongering about unproven allegations that a US$700 million bailout of failed Bank Century last November was used to finance the president's political party. Fear that stern action against the police and attorney general's office over the mess involving what appear to be fraudulent charges against officers of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) will not solve the problem but exacerbate it. Such fear can result in paralysis that reinforces a public perception that either the president is incompetent or has some hidden motive for stalling.
One manifestation of fear is also anger. Palace insiders say that Yudhoyono has become more emotional and thin-skinned than usual as the intertwined scandals dominate the news. If true, he is building a wall between himself and those who might talk straight and bring him clear-eyed advice. Classically, this is where palace courtiers step in, whispering that conspiracies are afoot. These opportunists endear themselves to an embattled president by playing on his insecurities and suspicions.
They become the main architects of a siege mentality, a common affliction for those caught in a political maelstrom. It is precisely in these situations that people in power often make critical mistakes and inadvertently become their own worst enemies. This is, of course, partly conjecture. I don't know precisely the president's state of mind. But we can be fairly sure that fear and palace intrigue prevails because there are no obvious or easy solutions to the current complex web of scandals. It is a mess and Yudhoyono's political survival is at stake. We have seen the rise of sycophants and the poisonous atmosphere that can accompany a crisis before in Indonesian politics. Think of the last days of Suharto and the disastrous consequences of that period for the nation. This is not to say that Yudhoyono should not be wary of his opponents. Opposition leaders are notorious for their predatory instincts, and already we can see them sharpening their knives inside the House of Representatives as they prepare to investigate the Bank Century bailout.
Should Yudhoyono continue to appear weak and lose popularity as a result of the KPK debacle, there is little doubt that one spillover effect will be a rising consensus inside the House to use Bank Century as a tool for tightening the noose - such are the ways of predators. But there is enough time to avert disaster. Public opinion, although critical of the president, has not hardened. In general, most Indonesians still like and trust their president. Moreover, after years of hard work to build a stronger economy and political stability, Indonesians take pride in their accomplishments and enjoy their rising regional status. Few would want a repeat of 1998. Yudhoyono might not be perfect, but it is clear from this year's elections that the majority of voters consider him a reasonable choice, given the alternatives. I am sure they would prefer that Yudhoyono find an elegant solution to this ordeal. What, then, can the president do to avert disaster?Foremost, the president must get it straight in his mind what he can and cannot do. He is right to say that he cannot play the role of a judge or short-circuit the legal system. He cannot force the police and attorney general's office to follow the recommendations of Team 8, the fact-finding body he established to ascertain the truth of who bribed whom in the squabble between the national police and the KPK - and so far both institutions are unwilling to succumb to public pressure.
Yudhoyono should realize that it is nearly impossible for the current chief of police or the attorney general to treat the KPK case in an objective and fair manner. What he can do, and is allowed to do, is order the resignations of senior officials of the police and attorney general's office. He must be seen as the man in charge and do whatever it takes to make sure they leave. He could argue, quite effectively I am sure, that ordering their resignations is based not on presuming anybody's guilt or innocence, but rather is by virtue of the fact that, given the extraordinary circumstances, none of them would be able to carry out their duties without prejudice. More important, Yudhoyono should tell the nation that the problem does not stop with the KPK imbroglio: Any future actions and decisions taken by the existing officials could easily be questioned. In other words, regardless of who may be right or wrong, the fact remains that unless these men are removed from office, they risk making their institutions dysfunctional - this could ruin any chances of legal reform. Second, Yudhoyono must come clean on the Bank Century story and address allegations that there was illegal use of the bank's funds for his presidential campaign.
If there were no irregularities, then Yudhoyono should welcome any investigations and order his political party to support them. On the other hand, if he cannot conclude with confidence that there was no wrong-doing within his inner circle, Yudhoyono must find out for himself the entire story and reveal the truth to the public before the House of Representatives discovers anything suggestive of deception or lies. Telling the truth may sound like unusual and unwise advice, but the fact is that big lies rarely escape detection. As many politicians have learned before, telling the truth can hurt less than lying. Indonesians are forgiving. And if mistakes were made, I think the public would excuse the president if they were to learn that practically all major political parties have, at one time or another, use public money for the purpose of financing their campaigns. It would also be the perfect opportunity to call for a general amnesty and demand reforms in the country's campaign finance laws. Yudhoyono could thus emerge from scandal to herald real reform. Given the dire situation at the moment, a new start for everybody is probably not a bad idea.
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