THE arrest of Indonesia's anti-corruption tsar over a murder will have little impact on President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's re-election campaign, analysts say.This is despite crime fighter Antasari Azhar having been a poster boy for the President. "Corruption is important but, really, the things that are most important are the costs of basic needs, things in relation to poverty," commentator Sunny Tanuwidjaja, from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said yesterday. And members of an Indonesian elite class who might see Mr Azhar's arrest as reflecting poorly on the President's anti-corruption drive were unlikely to have a big influence on the election result, he added. "Maybe intellectuals will make the connection, but the ordinary people, they will look to (the success of) programs such as the BLT and BOS (cash handouts for the poor and a school funding program)," he said. Mr Azhar will face as-yet-unspecified charges relating to the shooting of businessman Nasrudin Zulkarnaen as he left a Jakarta golf course in March. Mr Azhar was arrested on Monday night.
Indonesian media has speculated over a love triangle involving Mr Azhar, Nasrudin and his third wife, golf caddie Rani Juliani. It has been suggested that Mr Azhar was set up over the murder, with evidence reportedly including the secret filming of a sex tape involving him and Ms Juliani in a south Jakarta hotel. Police are expected to allege that Mr Azhar organised Nasrudin's murder to stop the businessman revealing the affair. Mr Azhar has denied any wrongdoing, and Mr Tanuwidjaja said the affair could, ironically, end up strengthening the Corruption Eradication Commission, of which, until last Friday, Mr Azhar was head. "There is positive and negative in this," Mr Tanuwidjaja said. "Questions could be asked about the institution' s credibility, but the way it handles this, the fact it has asked him to step down, could show that it is quite credible and transparent. " Political scientist Syamsuddin Haris predicted little electoral impact from the scandal, saying the Corruption Eradication Commission was "an independent institution" .
The presidential poll, slated for July 8, looks like being a showdown between Mr Yudhoyono, his deputy, Jusuf Kalla, and either former president Megawati Sukarnoputri or her new ally, retired military strongman Prabowo Subianto. Ms Megawati and Mr Prabowo have done a deal to run a joint ticket but have yet to announce which of them will get top billing on it. Ms Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle, which won up to 15 per cent of the vote in last month's parliamentary poll, has a solid enough constituency but Mr Prabowo has a family fortune worth billions of dollars to call on. Mr Yudhoyono confirmed that he had already decided on a running mate but says he will not make his selection known until after results in the parliamentary poll are declared on Saturday. Having made a clear break with Mr Kalla's Golkar party, Mr Yudhoyono now has the option of selecting a political professional or technocrat for his ticket rather than relying on party affiliation. And despite predictions that the recent rearranging of Indonesian politics will push him into the arms of Islamist parties to regain office, Mr Yudhoyono looks likely to win with an even bigger mandate.
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